Lee And Maria’s Odds Just Shot Up For Development

With both Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Harvey victims remaining in clean-up and rebuild modes, the thought that two more (yes, I know exactly what I just said) fringe storms are building will not be music to anyone’s tender ears. But, that’s becoming more and more the cases.

Here’s the situation. Currently, there are two tropical waves hanging out in the Atlantic ocean. Tropical waves are really just tropical disturbances, which are really just storms. But here’s the glitch: storms in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico at this time of year tend to offer both the Carribean and the U.S. mainland a potential threat. Warm waters, lack of wind shear and appropriate models for steering (see Irma’s path) can fuel devastating results as the end game for any tropical disturbances. In this case, there are two tropical waves hanging out off the coast of Africa (again, that’s where most hurricanes spawn, such as Hurricane Irma).

To begin, let’s look over the locations of where potential Tropical Storm or Hurricane Lee and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Maria are sitting.

You can see Hurricane Jose churning up some Atlantic waters out there, but as of now, we aren’t thinking it will strike the U.S. mainland. It really depends on how Hurricane Jose interacts with a low-pressure trough. Jose could shave the coast in the northeast, it could float away to sea, and in reality, it could make landfall as a category 1 hurricane. Here’s a look at the most likely path for Hurricane Jose, which is currently being battered by Atlantic wind shear.

hurricane jose path

But a potential Hurricane Maria or potential Hurricane Lee very well could strike the U.S. mainland. Conditions remain ripe. Over the next 5 days, both disturbances have 70 percent chances of development. That means becoming tropical depressions. And that would be bad. Here’s why:

Tropical depressions are more organized storm fronts. And in these cases, you’d have two tropical depressions encountering warm southerly Atlantic waters. The first disturbance (that’s the X marked most left of your optics) is about to move, unabated, into warm hurricane conductive waters (that now has a 60% chance to go develop as it has prime positioning). The second X (that’s far right of your optics) may have a tougher path, but that’s dependent on formation (it has a 40% chance to develop). If the second X forms now, it could get hit with some strong wind shear that may or may not effect tropical storm and hurricane development. It could get torn down, survive as a weak depression or wave, and still forge ahead into those good waters, though. Everything’s on the table, other than which will be named what because that depends on which forms first.

To worsen the situation, Florida leads the proverbial league in hurricane landfalls in October. 60% of all hurricanes that do make U.S. landfall in October do so at the peril of Florida.

If we have learned anything, our how to survive a hurricane guide should be on every prepper’s essential reading list if you live on an exposed coastline. There have been differing lessons learned with Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma. Harvey was a flood monster, Irma exposed how large and robust a hurricane can be by engulfing all of Florida with relative ease. In both cases, evacuation issues due to wobbling hurricane paths showed how confusing these situations can be. And of course, fuel shortages and power grid collapses showed us that being prepped to live without the basics should be a priority in every case.

As preppers, the most redeeming result of prepping is that we never have to panic. That’s the entire point of prepping. But unless you get prepped, you may always end up in panic mode. Get your fuel now. Get your water filter. Your food storage. Be ready now so that you aren’t behind the 8-ball if SHTF goes down.

Author: Jim Satney

PrepForThat’s Editor and lead writer for political, survival, and weather categories.


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